A mathematical model for predicting the geographic spread of new infectious agents
Identifieur interne : 000168 ( 1968/Analysis ); précédent : 000167; suivant : 000169A mathematical model for predicting the geographic spread of new infectious agents
Auteurs : Ira M. Longini Jr. [États-Unis]Source :
- Mathematical Biosciences [ 0025-5564 ] ; 1988.
English descriptors
- Teeft :
- Average length, Continuous state space, Difference equations, Discrete time, Disease control, Epidemic, Epidemic curve, Epidemic process, Final attack rate, First city, Geographic spread, Global scale, Global spread, Greater london, Health officials, Hong kong, Hong kong influenza, Hong kong influenza pandemic, Immune states, Infectious agents, Infectious contact, Infectious diseases, Infectious individuals, Infectious period, Infectious periods, Influenza, Influenza activity, Influenza epidemics, Influenza morbidity, Initial conditions, Initial infective replacement number, Integrodifferential equations, Large populations, Longini, Major cities, Mathematical model, Mathematical models, Maximum length, Morbidity, Morbidity data, Natural history, Next section, Pandemic, Population centers, Relative error, Research institute, Rvachev, Single infective, Single population, Soviet mathematicians, Soviet union, Stochastic formulation, Susceptible individuals, Threshold theorem, Time units, Transportation matrix, World airline statistics.
Abstract
Abstract: A mathematical model for the temporal and geographic spread of an epidemic in a network of populations is presented. The model is formulated on a continuous state space in discrete time for an infectious disease that confers immunity following infection. The model allows for a general distribution of both the latent and infectious periods. An epidemic threshold theorem is given along with methods for finding the final attack rate when a single closed population is modeled. The model is first applied to analyzing the spread of influenza in single, closed populations in England and Wales and Greater London for the years 1958–1973. Then the model is used to predict the spread of Hong Kong influenza in 1968–1969 among 52 of the world's major cities. The prediction for the whole network of cities is based on air-transport data and on the estimated parameters from the ascending limb of the reported epidemic curve in Hong Kong, the first city to experience a major influenza epidemic in 1968. Finally, extensions and future uses of a model for temporal-geographic spread of infectious agents is discussed.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/0025-5564(88)90075-2
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Istex, to step Corpus: 000219
- to stream Istex, to step Curation: 000219
- to stream Istex, to step Checkpoint: 000F47
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 002342
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 002234
- to stream Main, to step Exploration: 002234
- to stream 1968, to step Extraction: 000168
Links to Exploration step
ISTEX:DC474626973500F22CC60E84374E081B16F46EF5Le document en format XML
<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title>A mathematical model for predicting the geographic spread of new infectious agents</title><author><name sortKey="Longini Jr, Ira M" sort="Longini Jr, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini Jr I" first="Ira M." last="Longini Jr.">Ira M. Longini Jr.</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:DC474626973500F22CC60E84374E081B16F46EF5</idno><date when="1988" year="1988">1988</date><idno type="doi">10.1016/0025-5564(88)90075-2</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/6H6-6LGHCBB9-6/fulltext.pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">000219</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">000219</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Curation">000219</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Checkpoint">000F47</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000F47</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0025-5564:1988:Longini Jr I:a:mathematical:model</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">002342</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">002234</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">002234</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/1968/Extraction">000168</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a">A mathematical model for predicting the geographic spread of new infectious agents</title><author><name sortKey="Longini Jr, Ira M" sort="Longini Jr, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini Jr I" first="Ira M." last="Longini Jr.">Ira M. Longini Jr.</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Statistics and Biometry, Emory University, Atlanta</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Mathematical Biosciences</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">MBS</title><idno type="ISSN">0025-5564</idno><imprint><publisher>ELSEVIER</publisher><date type="published" when="1988">1988</date><biblScope unit="volume">90</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">1–2</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="367">367</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="383">383</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0025-5564</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0025-5564</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en"><term>Average length</term><term>Continuous state space</term><term>Difference equations</term><term>Discrete time</term><term>Disease control</term><term>Epidemic</term><term>Epidemic curve</term><term>Epidemic process</term><term>Final attack rate</term><term>First city</term><term>Geographic spread</term><term>Global scale</term><term>Global spread</term><term>Greater london</term><term>Health officials</term><term>Hong kong</term><term>Hong kong influenza</term><term>Hong kong influenza pandemic</term><term>Immune states</term><term>Infectious agents</term><term>Infectious contact</term><term>Infectious diseases</term><term>Infectious individuals</term><term>Infectious period</term><term>Infectious periods</term><term>Influenza</term><term>Influenza activity</term><term>Influenza epidemics</term><term>Influenza morbidity</term><term>Initial conditions</term><term>Initial infective replacement number</term><term>Integrodifferential equations</term><term>Large populations</term><term>Longini</term><term>Major cities</term><term>Mathematical model</term><term>Mathematical models</term><term>Maximum length</term><term>Morbidity</term><term>Morbidity data</term><term>Natural history</term><term>Next section</term><term>Pandemic</term><term>Population centers</term><term>Relative error</term><term>Research institute</term><term>Rvachev</term><term>Single infective</term><term>Single population</term><term>Soviet mathematicians</term><term>Soviet union</term><term>Stochastic formulation</term><term>Susceptible individuals</term><term>Threshold theorem</term><term>Time units</term><term>Transportation matrix</term><term>World airline statistics</term></keywords></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Abstract: A mathematical model for the temporal and geographic spread of an epidemic in a network of populations is presented. The model is formulated on a continuous state space in discrete time for an infectious disease that confers immunity following infection. The model allows for a general distribution of both the latent and infectious periods. An epidemic threshold theorem is given along with methods for finding the final attack rate when a single closed population is modeled. The model is first applied to analyzing the spread of influenza in single, closed populations in England and Wales and Greater London for the years 1958–1973. Then the model is used to predict the spread of Hong Kong influenza in 1968–1969 among 52 of the world's major cities. The prediction for the whole network of cities is based on air-transport data and on the estimated parameters from the ascending limb of the reported epidemic curve in Hong Kong, the first city to experience a major influenza epidemic in 1968. Finally, extensions and future uses of a model for temporal-geographic spread of infectious agents is discussed.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li></region></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Géorgie (États-Unis)"><name sortKey="Longini Jr, Ira M" sort="Longini Jr, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini Jr I" first="Ira M." last="Longini Jr.">Ira M. Longini Jr.</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/H2N2V1/Data/1968/Analysis
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000168 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/1968/Analysis/biblio.hfd -nk 000168 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= H2N2V1
|flux= 1968
|étape= Analysis
|type= RBID
|clé= ISTEX:DC474626973500F22CC60E84374E081B16F46EF5
|texte= A mathematical model for predicting the geographic spread of new infectious agents
}}
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |